Yongbum Kim, the chief policy officer of the Blue House, posted a lengthy post on social media over the weekend. The economic situation of "10% nominal growth rate" was described as "unfamiliar" and "fear."

It was a car that had similar concerns. The conclusion seems to be different from the author's opinion, but there is something to sympathize with in the problem consciousness.

Sooner or later, there will be a tsunami of money. And we will face unfamiliar figures.

First, there is a sharp decline in the national debt ratio. The debt ratio is the total amount of government debt divided by nominal GDP. Due to the semiconductor boom, the nominal GDP growth rate in the first quarter was 17.1% year-on-year, the highest in 50 years. It is projected to average around 10 percent per year. As the denominator grows, the debate over "over 50% of the national debt ratio" will disappear in an instant. Originally, the debt ratio forecast for this year was 51.6 percent. Assuming the nominal growth rate, which is the denominator, is 10%, it falls to 48.3%, and 12% to 47.4%. A country that was worried about debt is suddenly going to pretend to be a financially relaxed country.

Second, the household debt ratio. Again, it falls together due to the nominal GDP effect. According to the Bank for International Settlements (BIS), the ratio of household debt to GDP stood at 88.6% in the fourth quarter of last year. If the trend continues in the first quarter, it could fall to 80% within this year.

Third, the per capita gross national income (GNI) is close to $40,000. Last year's GNI was $36,963, which has been in the $30,000 range for 12 years. However, the GNI increased 13.2% in the first quarter compared to the previous year, the highest since 1988. Household real income has only increased by 0.4%, but GNI is flying away. The exchange rate is a variable, but when it reaches $40,000, the voice to pop champagne will grow.

This is about what comes to mind. You will see many more surprising figures.

Of course, these indicators are not just optical illusions. The money is actually pouring in. Some predict that corporate taxes will be collected by 100 trillion won in the semiconductor industry alone.

The point to note is continuity. Is this money really going to come in for decades? The debt-to-equity ratio does not decrease by paying off the debt. This is due to improved trade terms. Whether it will continue or not depends on semiconductors.

These discourses end up in politics. Politics is the subject to predict and decide how much and where to use it. Can politicians who are desperate for votes make a cold judgment and be free from the temptation of money. The current government vowed to expand its finances, but was cautious about the threshold of a "debt ratio of 50%." However, if the debt-to-equity ratio plunges, it can operate the justification of a "competent government that has reduced debt and made a lot of money." There is room for the pedal of the "Basic Series" such as basic welfare and basic income.

However, the "downward rigidity of welfare" must be taken into account. It is difficult to reduce the welfare budget once increased. What situation will we face if the semiconductor cycle breaks and nominal GDP returns to its place. The debt ratio rises steeply, and the pain is borne by the next generation. In fact, before that, the price surge hits the present generation. If liquidity is released, the value of money will fall, resulting in a paradox that all citizens become poor. The more vulnerable the more painful it is.

A proper country would form a consensus on reinvesting future growth engines or repaying debts.

Recovering Norway, which discovered North Sea oil fields in 1969. It keeps the principle of accumulating profits in the sovereign wealth fund (GPFG) and spending only 3% of the budget every year. The fund has nearly 3,000 trillion won in assets, making it a breakwater for Norwegian descendants.

The North Sea oil fields are mined for a long time. On the other hand, how long will semiconductors last. It could be shorter than you think.

Reliable civil servants, logical scholars, and a cold press should play a role. The answer is out. We should be wary of populists who advocate money-losing with spectacular rhetoric. We need a social consensus that will hold down politicians who are weak in votes. In the end, the people's 度 will determine the future.

[Kim Sun-gul, Editorial Director]