Real Estate Trends to Watch in 2024

Multifamily construction is falling off at the fastest rate in recorded history, according to Census data released this week. In 2024 year-to-date, we've completed 168,800 more units than we've started -- the largest gap since tracking began in 1968. Five potential implications: 1) "More housing" is a (thankfully!) a rallying cry on the campaign trail this year. But, unfortunately, multifamily supply is almost certainly going to drop off in 2026-28 compared to 2023-25 -- regardless who wins the White House. Reversing the ship would likely take policy intervention far more aggressive (and controversial) than either candidate is proposing. 2) Total active construction remains elevated but is dropping fast as completions outpace starts. The heavy completion wave should continue into the first half of 2025, then thins out significantly. The rapidly changing supply picture is a big contributing in factor for investors buying apartments, taking on weak fundamentals in Year 1 based on renewed optimism for Years 2+. 3) Today's newly built apartments are taking longer to lease up and often leasing at rents below pro forma in order to compete with the wave of supply. But thinning supply levels starting around the middle of 2025 could help drive a rebound, assuming the economy holds up. 4) The U.S. is trending toward apartment supply levels below pre-COVID norms -- more likely in the range of 2012-2015. 5) Every developer and most investors are likely well aware of the increasingly favorable supply/demand outlook. But until a) lease-up occupancy and rents rebound and b) stabilized asset values jump back above replacement cost, it's unlikely we'd see a large pickup in new starts even as interest rates begin to decline. #multifamily #construction #housing

Four promising trends driving design innovation now Commercial real estate is entering a new era—one shaped by technology, sustainability, and evolving expectations about how and where we work. This moment offers an opportunity to reimagine the built environment, aligning innovation with human-centric design.  More than ever, it's important to create spaces that blend experience, flexibility, and tech integration—while also enhancing wellbeing and fostering connection. Pure aesthetics won’t cut it anymore. Trend #1: Designing for a ‘street to seat’ experience  This strategy prioritizes seamless transitions—from city streets to workstations, retail, and entertainment—by incorporating high-quality shared amenities, end-of-commute facilities, and curated retail and dining experiences. In workplaces, this translates to smarter booking systems, distinctive space designs, and tailored perks that make offices more inviting.   Trend #2: Reimagining spaces for social connection and community  After years of fluctuating office attendance, our research shows that the top reasons people return to the office are social connection and office culture. Well-designed spaces that foster collaboration and belonging are becoming a must-have in both workplaces and neighborhoods.  That’s why forward-looking organizations are working with psychologists and social scientists to design environments that promote authentic interactions—from shared dining experiences to immersive event spaces. This approach offers a competitive edge in a market where connection-driven spaces stand out. Trend #3: Unlocking value through adaptive reuse and retrofitting  With growing sustainability demands, clients are investing in adaptive re-use and retrofitting to meet environmental and social needs. In 2025, we’re seeing more focus on energy efficiency, wellness features, and aligning branding with sustainability goals.  The shift reflects changing employee and consumer expectations. JLL research shows 60% of employers plan to increase investment in building refurbishments and sustainability over the next five years. Properties embracing urban regeneration, circular design, and green spaces will command premium market positions as they increase visibility around their eco-credentials. Trend #4: Embracing AI tools for science-led design  From generative AI shaping architectural concepts to neuroscience-driven workplace optimization, its impact is accelerating—and many organizations are exploring how to apply it effectively. Emerging fields like neuro-architecture are showing how AI can combine psychology, biomedicine, and environmental science to optimize spaces for wellbeing and productivity.    Together, by combining research-driven insights, people-centric strategies, and cutting-edge technology, we're helping our clients create spaces that don’t just keep up with change—they set the standard for what’s next. 

The longer the rental crisis, the greater the desire to "own" will become. Over the past few years, one of the most under-reported drivers of the property market's recent resilience has been the short-term challenge our rental market has posed, fueling a shift towards property ownership. Not only are there substantial rental price increases and immense difficulty in securing a property when you are looking, but more importantly, the long-term fear that you may not be able to rent what you need to has exploded. One of the most common recent motivators for first home buyers to make a purchase is their desire for security and stability, not just financial gains as we have seen in the past. Their challenges are pushing them to tighten their belts, manage their savings, seek help from parents, and ultimately take the leap to secure their first home. Nothing is more motivating than security, and we are starting to see the shift to families that own but are not in a viable long-term solution. They are beginning to do what they must to get a long-term forever home sorted. In the past, we often saw upgraders make an upgrade when they needed to or, to be honest, a year or two after. Even though it often made a lot of financial sense, the pro-active upgrader who got their forever home sorted years before when they needed to rarely existed. But 2024 is different; our clients are accepting and making the compromises necessary to find a suitable property for their needs. Recently, we have seen more compromises than I have ever seen, with clients buying smaller places, moving further out or regionally and making sacrifices they wouldn't have typically made in the past. This rightsizing, rather than an aspirational approach, comes as the gap to get their dream property feels beyond reach in the short, medium and long term, and clients match the reality of their finances with the market. While we don't know how 2024-2027 will play out if we maintain a higher for more extended interest rate setting, our capital city rental market will continue to tighten as more investors sell; they are not replaced as new investors flow to regional hotspots, and there is long-term drop to rental supply will be locked in.

What trends will shape the real estate market over the next six months? Here’s what I’m watching as a quiet observer of how India feels about its future: 1. From Price Sensitivity → Value Consciousness People aren’t just looking for cheaper homes. They want more innovative layouts, efficient maintenance, and ROI—not just resale, but in living well. The home is no longer a status symbol. It’s becoming a system of well-being. 2. From Location → Livability The adage “location, location, location” is now “infrastructure, infrastructure, infrastructure.” People follow roads, metros, schools, and air quality. Cities are reshaping not through skylines, but via underground cables and flyovers. Tier 2 cities? Not the next big thing. They are the thing. 3. From Marketing → Trust Capital The new buyer doesn’t believe ads. They believe in testimonials, track record, and transparency. Builders with brand equity, no matter the scale, will win. Your reputation is your marketing now. 4. From Real Estate → Real Utility Warehousing, data centres, fractional ownership, mixed-use microcities— We’re witnessing the “Unbundling of Real Estate.” No longer just brick and mortar. Now: platform, ecosystem, experience. These shifts are quiet, but once they tip, they reshape the demand curve. So if you’re in real estate—stop chasing virality. Build something buyers trust, infrastructure respects, and families stay in. “The best returns come from long-term thinking in spaces where others chase the short term.” Let’s play that long game.

Friday's weak jobs report is rippling through the headlines. Whether or not a recession comes to fruition is TBD, but at minimum there's growing fear of job growth further slowing into the final stretch of 2024. It goes without saying that a 'true' recession would add downwards force to multifamily demand. But here's the thing: job growth (year-ending 2nd quarter 2024) was already dipping below the level going into 2020. But despite slowing job growth, demand for multifamily has excelled. So what's happening then? There's a confluence of factors spurring demand today - and it extends beyond JUST job growth. I would personally argue that it's actually a good thing that there are a bunch of smaller influences driving demand (which adds up to a lot on aggregate) rather than one key driving influence. Perhaps it's useful to think of this as a 'diversification of demand drivers'. The economy: headwinds are mounting. There's some concern about already slowing job growth and whether any interest rate cuts issued this year are "too little, too late". The biggest concern I can point out is incongruent job growth across sectors. Higher-wage sectors (professional/business services, financial activities, etc.) are seeing annualized cuts in a number of markets. Conversely, the growth that is happening is largely skewed towards government & education/health care (i.e., two largely recession-resistant sectors). Some good news through end of this year is that wages are still growing... but again, overall economic slowing will also translate to slowing wage growth. Consumer health: Despite the doom-and-gloom and the "vibecession", the health of the typical market-rate rental housing household remains okay. The first few months of 2024 saw the fewest # of new lease signers per lease agreement since 2016/2017 (see comments for linked post). Turnover is decreasing. And rent/income ratios are at their lowest level since early 2020. Together, these things should continue to support some demand for rental product through the next six to nine months at least. Demographics: Continued support for housing demand here, too. International migration has ticked upwards again - a favorable influence for coastal markets in particular. Domestic migration meanwhile is normalizing. This may be a modest knock for high-supply markets where inbound migration from 2020-2022 was a key driving force (e.g. Florida). But here's the thing: migration is still flowing INTO those areas. Lastly, single family homes: Fewer move-outs to single family than ever before. This means renters are staying in place longer, and any new lease demand via the front door is building overall aggregate demand. Even if mortgage rates get back into more palatable territory, the "lock-in" effect of low rates + limited starter home inventory is likely to remain a positive influence on rental housing demand. So let's hear it - anything I missed? Anything that I'm over (or under) optimistic on?

The best time to buy or sell? It’s when it makes the most sense for you. That said, if you have the flexibility to plan around market patterns, there are some trends worth noting. For buyers, prices are usually lower in the second half of the year, though inventory tends to shrink. For sellers, the first half of the year often delivers the highest sales prices. Take 2024 as an example. In Denver’s metro market, home prices rose 9.55% from January to April. After April, prices began dropping, ending up 3.73% below the peak at the end of the year. This pattern is typical—gains in the first half, corrections in the second. What was different this time? The peak came a few months earlier than usual, thanks to rising interest rates in April. Rates can change everything. When rates dropped in September, October’s sales prices jumped by about $20k as buyers flooded back into the market (it was a brief period of time at lower rates). This highlights a critical point: interest rates have a big say in today’s real estate dynamics, sometimes even overriding historical trends. Seasonal patterns are helpful, but understanding how interest rates interact with them is key. The market moves fast, but the best move is always the one that aligns with your personal goals.

What trends will shape the real estate market over the next six months? Home prices are expected to flatten or dip slightly. Inventory is climbing, which gives buyers more leverage. Mortgage rates are likely to stay in the mid‑6% range, which keeps pressure on affordability. Rent growth isn’t done yet. With new construction slowing, rents are set to rise again. Commercial real estate is splitting in two: Office is shrinking, with more demolitions and conversions than new builds. Industrial, multifamily, and alternatives like self‑storage are seeing stronger demand. Tech and data are changing the game. AI tools, structured valuations, and exclusive listings are moving fast. My takeaway: - Focus on rentals and build‑to‑rent if you’re investing. - Watch office-to-residential conversions for opportunities. - Be tech‑ready, from AI valuations to smarter marketing. - Real estate is moving into a period where flexibility beats prediction. If you want to stay ahead in this market, start planning now.

What trends will shape the Bay Area real estate market over the next 6 months? 🏡 After analyzing market data and tracking buyer/seller behavior patterns, here are the key trends I'm watching: 🏠 INVENTORY REALITY CHECK 2025 is bringing significantly higher inventory than past spring seasons. In many Bay Area cities - San Jose, Fremont, Dublin, Oakland - inventory is up 40-68% compared to last year. Homes are sitting 30-60 days vs. the 7-10 days we saw in 2021-2022. 💰 INTEREST RATE REALITY Buyers are adapting to the "new normal" of 5.5-6.5% rates. The days of waiting for 3% rates are over. Smart buyers are focusing on purchase price negotiation and taking advantage of increased inventory. 🎓 SCHOOL DISTRICT PREMIUMS Cupertino, Palo Alto, and Fremont school districts will see even higher premiums as international families prioritize education. Expect 10-15% price gaps to widen further. 🏢 REMOTE WORK EVOLUTION Tech companies' return-to-office mandates are driving Bay Area housing demand, but buyers now have time to be selective with increased inventory. 🌟 NEW TECH HIRING WAVE While some tech workers are still getting laid off, companies are actively hiring different skill sets - AI specialists, data scientists & cybersecurity experts. These new hires coming from around the world are creating fresh demand. 📱 GLOBAL TALENT INFLUX The new wave of international tech workers (many with higher compensation packages) is entering the Bay Area market, creating demand in premium neighborhoods and school districts. THE BOTTOM LINE: Supply has increased significantly, giving buyers more choices and negotiating power. This is a very different market from 2021-2022. 👉 For sellers: Price strategically and prepare for more educated, selective buyers who have options. 👉 For buyers: Take advantage of increased inventory and longer market times to find the right home at the right price. Ready to navigate this shifting market? Whether buying or selling, I help clients make informed decisions based on real data, not headlines. #bayarea #realestate #realtor #siliconvalley #property #techhiring

🏡 Post-Pandemic Population Shifts Are Rewriting Residential Markets, and Investors Who Understand Both Demand and Supply Will Win New county-level data (2021–2024) shows a clear reshaping of where Americans live, and these shifts are directly influencing residential fundamentals. 📈 Demand Is Surging in the Sun Belt Harris County, TX (+273K), Maricopa County, AZ (+227K), and multiple Florida counties are leading the nation in population growth. These markets continue to attract new households seeking affordability, jobs, and lifestyle advantages. 📉 Coastal Urban Cores Are Still Shrinking Los Angeles County (-239K), Cook County (-84K), and major NYC boroughs remain in decline. These markets aren’t disappearing, but the fundamentals have structurally changed. 🏘️Rural & Small-Metro Counties Surprise Remote work stabilized, allowing many rural counties to enjoy a net inflow of ~670K residents, creating pockets of unexpected housing demand. 🔍The Insight: Demand Matters, But Supply Determines the Outcome Population growth alone doesn’t guarantee strong returns. Supply constraints, zoning, entitlements, and land availability decide whether demand translates into rent growth and pricing power. Some of the strongest opportunities today are in counties with: ✔ Strong in-migration ✔ Limited ability to add new supplies quickly That’s where durable value is created. Source: U.S. Census Bureau via Harvard Joint Center for Housing Studies / Visual Capitalist #RealEstateInvesting #Multifamily #HousingMarket #SunBeltGrowth #PopulationTrends #MarketResearch #PropTech #MigrationPatterns #SupplyAndDemand #RealEstateAnalytics

Leverage $1.5 trillion in new home equity:  ( 2024 Real Estate Trends ) The real estate landscape is evolving rapidly,  with homeowners collectively gaining $1.5 trillion  in equity last year alone. This figure is just one of the many shifts  reshaping our industry. As we navigate this dynamic market, understanding  the key trends is crucial for success. Here are the top trends shaping real estate in 2024: ➡️ 𝗛𝗼𝗺𝗲 𝗣𝗿𝗶𝗰𝗲𝘀 𝗖𝗼𝗻𝘁𝗶𝗻𝘂𝗲 𝗖𝗹𝗶𝗺𝗯𝗶𝗻𝗴 Despite some cooling, experts predict a 15-25% rise in  average sale prices over the next five years. ➡️ 𝗗𝗶𝗴𝗶𝘁𝗮𝗹-𝗙𝗶𝗿𝘀𝘁 𝗛𝗼𝘂𝘀𝗲 𝗛𝘂𝗻𝘁𝗶𝗻𝗴 Virtual tours, 3D walkthroughs, and online mortgage  applications are now the norm. 41% of buyers start their  search online. ➡️ 𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝗦𝘂𝗯𝘂𝗿𝗯𝗮𝗻 𝗦𝗵𝗶𝗳𝘁 Americans are increasingly moving to suburbs and  smaller cities, driven by remote work opportunities,  lower costs, and the desire for more space. ➡️ 𝗦𝗶𝗻𝗴𝗹𝗲-𝗙𝗮𝗺𝗶𝗹𝘆 𝗛𝗼𝘂𝘀𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗦𝗵𝗼𝗿𝘁𝗮𝗴𝗲 Demand for single-family homes has created a  significant shortage, with new households outnumbering  new homes by over 7 million since 2012. ➡️ 𝗥𝗶𝘀𝗲 𝗼𝗳 𝗠𝘂𝗹𝘁𝗶-𝗚𝗲𝗻𝗲𝗿𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻𝗮𝗹 𝗟𝗶𝘃𝗶𝗻𝗴 Economic pressures and changing family dynamics have  led to a quadrupling of multi-generational  households since 1971. ➡️ 𝗛𝗶𝗴𝗵 𝗠𝗼𝗿𝘁𝗴𝗮𝗴𝗲 𝗥𝗮𝘁𝗲𝘀 𝗣𝗲𝗿𝘀𝗶𝘀𝘁 Rates remain around 7%, significantly impacting  affordability. Experts forecast only modest decreases in  the coming years. ➡️ 𝗥𝗲𝗻𝘁𝗮𝗹 𝗠𝗮𝗿𝗸𝗲𝘁 𝗦𝗵𝗶𝗳𝘁𝘀 Big cities see declining rental demand, while smaller  cities experience growth. This creates new investment  opportunities in repurposing commercial spaces. ➡️ 𝗖𝗼𝗺𝗺𝗲𝗿𝗰𝗶𝗮𝗹 𝗥𝗲𝗮𝗹 𝗘𝘀𝘁𝗮𝘁𝗲 𝗶𝗻 𝗙𝗹𝘂𝘅 Office vacancies hit record highs, but retail and  multi-family properties show promise in certain areas. ➡️ 𝗧𝗼𝗸𝗲𝗻𝗶𝘇𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝗼𝗳 𝗥𝗲𝗮𝗹 𝗘𝘀𝘁𝗮𝘁𝗲 Blockchain technology is enabling fractional ownership  of properties, making real estate investments more  accessible and liquid for a broader range of investors. By staying informed and agile, investors can capitalize  on these shifts and find success in this dynamic landscape.