사진 확대

Investors' anxiety is growing as shares of Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix are faltering. However, many of the semiconductor-related concerns that have shaken the domestic and foreign stock markets are too much to be interpreted as a shift in business conditions (peakout). It is advised that the bad news should be used as an opportunity to buy at a low price as it has already been reflected in the stock price.

According to NH Amundi Asset Management on the 5th, the 'August HANARO Exchange Traded Fund (ETF) Munsley Report' cited three reasons for the recent plunge in semiconductor companies' stock prices: memory price concerns, threat of continuity of artificial intelligence (AI) investment by Big Tech, and the rise of semiconductors in China. However, it was diagnosed that these bad news were excessively reflected in the current stock price.

Concerns over rising memory prices can be resolved by expanding long-term supply contracts (LTAs) by semiconductor companies, according to the analysis. This is because if long-term supply contracts are expanded, even if memory prices fluctuate, companies' performance will deteriorate or the risk of deficits will be eased.

In fact, the rise in memory prices is on the rise. According to market research firm TrendForce, DRAM prices are expected to decrease from the third quarter.

However, as supply contracts are expanding, the slowdown in memory price growth does not lead to a slowdown in business conditions. In its latest earnings announcement, Samsung Electronics said it has secured about 30 percent of its total volume through long-term supply contracts (LTAs), while SK Hynix has also concluded mid- to long-term contract negotiations with major customers.

사진 확대

The second concern is that AI investment will slow down. This is because doubts over financing continue in the market as the free cash flow of major hyperscalers turns negative and corporate bond issuance and paid-in capital increase expand.

However, according to Bloomberg, the free cash flow of the top five hyperscalers (Microsoft, Meta, Alphabet, Amazon, and Oracle) will turn positive after 2028. It added that major hyperscalers' second-quarter earnings announcements in late July proved their profitability.

사진 확대

China's Changsin Memory (CXMT) is also expected to have a limited impact on domestic semiconductor performance. This is due to the analysis that Changsin Memory's production capacity will be exhausted by demand in China's domestic market for a considerable period of time. In terms of high bandwidth memory (HBM) technology, there is a 2-3 year gap compared to Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix In the coming years, the U.S. data center has observed that it is unlikely that it will choose the HBM of Changsin Memory.

In response, he pointed out that it is necessary to pay attention to the "gap between performance and stock price." As market concerns surrounding semiconductors have already been reflected in prices, Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix's stock prices are rather in a state of rebound.

사진 확대

Regarding the last adjustment, he stressed that the overheated investment fever has been reversed.

On the 5th, Kim Seung-chul, head of the ETF Investment Division at NH Amundi Asset Management "This (domestic stock market) adjustment is an example of how leveraged demand focused on certain stocks can amplify volatility," he said. "The current time when companies with record performance and solid prospects trade at low prices can be an investment opportunity."