Effects on Key Industries

Given the plan to have the steel & aluminum tariffs jump to 50% this week, I wanted to share data on the downstream industries whose cost structures are most impacted by this action. I've done this by using the latest benchmark use table from the input-output accounts (https://lnkd.in/eQdPji9) and calculated each industries' combined use of (i) Iron and steel mills and ferroalloy manufacturing [331110]; (ii) steel product manufacturing from purchased steel [331200]; (iii) Alumina refining and primary aluminum production [331313]; and (iv) Aluminum product manufacturing from purchased aluminum [33131B]. I then summed the use across these four commodities and divided this sum by each industries' total intermediate inputs (which includes all goods, utilities, and services). Below are the top sectors. Thoughts: •For many industries in fabricated metals (starting with NAICS 332), we see steel and aluminum make up more than 40% of the cost structure. If we assume that domestic prices ultimately rise something like 35% from a non-tariff scenario, that would represent a 15% increase in costs. This is a conservative estimate because I'm using all intermediate inputs as the denominator; if I used only goods and utilities, this figure would be much higher. •As expected, we see substantial impacts on transportation equipment (the major impact on military armored vehicles is a bit ironic) and machinery. Transportation equipment and machinery are two sectors where the USA is very globally competitive; these tariffs make us less competitive by raising producers' costs. For example, the last thing John Deere needs is to be paying higher prices for steel and aluminum as it tries to compete with European rivals for business in Australia. •It's worth again stressing these affected downstream industries employ far more people than employed in making steel and aluminum. This is why tariffing upstream industries has been termed "Self-Harming Trade Policy" (see https://lnkd.in/gWgxQjtY). Implication: many industries will be starting this week with the reality that they are looking at their costs rising substantially due to POTUS's steel and aluminum tariff escalation. This is precisely the type of action that makes the FOMC less likely to reduce interest rates anytime soon. #supplychain #economics #shipsandshipping #manufacturing #freight

How Do Market Corrections Typically Impact Different Sectors of the Stock Market Market corrections typically affect various sectors of the stock market differently, depending on the underlying economic conditions, investor sentiment, and the nature of the correction. 1. Technology Sector Impact: The technology sector often experiences the sharpest declines during corrections due to its high valuations and reliance on growth expectations. Investors tend to sell riskier assets first, and tech stocks are often among the most volatile. Historical Example: During the 2000 dot-com bubble burst, tech stocks saw massive losses, with the Nasdaq Composite losing nearly 78% of its value. Current Context (2025): The "Magnificent Seven" tech stocks have led the current correction due to AI competition and valuation concerns. 2. Consumer Discretionary Impact: This sector is highly sensitive to economic conditions. During corrections, reduced consumer spending can lead to significant declines in retail, travel, and luxury goods companies. Historical Example: In the 2008 financial crisis, consumer discretionary stocks were hit hard as unemployment rose and spending declined. Resilience: Companies with strong brand loyalty or diversified revenue streams may fare better. 3. Financials Impact: Financial stocks can see mixed performance depending on the nature of the correction. If interest rates rise or economic uncertainty increases, banks and lenders may suffer due to reduced borrowing and potential loan defaults. Historical Example: In 2008, financials were at the epicenter of the crisis, with major institutions failing or requiring bailouts. Current Context: Financial stocks may be impacted by inflation concerns and geopolitical risks tied to tariffs. 4. Energy Impact: Energy stocks are influenced by global oil prices and geopolitical tensions. Corrections tied to economic slowdowns can reduce demand for energy, leading to declines in this sector. Historical Example: In 2020, energy stocks plummeted as oil prices crashed during COVID-19 lockdowns. Resilience: Renewable energy companies may be less affected if long-term trends favor green investments. 5. Healthcare Impact: Healthcare tends to be more resilient during corrections because it is considered a defensive sector. Demand for healthcare services remains relatively stable regardless of economic conditions. Historical Example: During the 2020 pandemic-driven correction, healthcare stocks performed better than most other sectors due to increased demand for treatments and vaccines. 6. Consumer Staples Impact: Like healthcare, consumer staples (e.g., food, beverages, household goods) are considered defensive because they provide essential products that consumers continue buying even during economic downturns. Historical Example: Staples outperformed other sectors during the 2008 financial crisis as investors shifted toward safety.

Just dropped some serious intel on OT security that should have every manufacturing CISO paying attention right now. CISA just released ICSA-25-217-01 targeting a Windows Shortcut Following vulnerability in Mitsubishi Electric's ICONICS suite and the implications are way more serious than the medium CVSS score suggests. Here's what's got me concerned. We're talking about GENESIS64, GENESIS 11.00, and MC Works64 systems that are literally the nerve center of manufacturing operations. These aren't just random HMI systems, they're the primary operator interface for controlling industrial processes, storing decades of operational data, and serving as the bridge between IT and OT networks. The vulnerability CVE-2025-7376 allows attackers to create symbolic links that cause unauthorized writes to critical system files. In manufacturing environments this translates to potentially corrupted GENESIS configurations that could blind operators to critical process parameters during production runs. Think about it, an attacker gains local access and suddenly your operators are looking at false process conditions or missing critical alarms during an emergency scenario. What makes this particularly nasty for OT environments is that ICONICS systems typically have dual network connectivity spanning IT and OT domains. This makes them prime lateral movement targets where an initial IT compromise can pivot directly into process control networks. And since these systems often handle alarm management for safety critical notifications, tampering with configuration files could compromise industrial safety systems. The manufacturing sector impact is immediate. Production line visualization gets compromised, operators lose situational awareness, and process historian data integrity comes into question. For facilities running continuous processes or just in time manufacturing, corrupted HMI configurations requiring specialized knowledge to restore could extend downtime significantly. The fix exists for GENESIS systems, upgrade to version 11.01, but for MC Works64 we're looking at implementing strict administrator only access and enhanced network segmentation as primary defenses. Bottom line, this vulnerability sits at the human machine interface layer where compromising these systems directly threatens operators ability to safely monitor and control industrial processes. That medium CVSS score doesn't capture the business impact of production disruptions or potential safety incidents in heavy manufacturing. Are your ICONICS systems properly segmented and monitored?

🚨 Iran’s effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz is far more than an oil story — it’s an assault on global supply chains that will touch nearly every sector of the economy. My latest op-ed at The Daily Caller explains why the impacts extend well beyond rising gasoline prices. While the immediate oil price spike and potential $1+/gallon jump at the pump grab headlines, the longer-term disruptions are even more concerning: ◾ LNG: Qatar, which supplies 17-20% of global LNG, has halted production — leading to higher utility bills and increased reliance on coal in Asia and Europe. ◾ Fertilizers: Roughly 50% of the world’s urea and 20-30% of other fertilizers (plus one-third of global ammonia) are at risk — threatening food production, higher crop prices, and farm viability. ◾ Helium: 30-35% of global supply (largely tied to Qatari LNG) could be offline for 3-5 years — creating major challenges for semiconductor manufacturing and high-tech industries. ◾ Sulfur: Nearly half of seaborne global supply originates in the Persian Gulf — affecting fertilizers, rubber, metals processing, and chemicals. ◾ Petrochemicals: The region accounts for ~30% of seaborne exports, including 40% of global polyethylene and over 37% of naphtha — disrupting plastics, packaging, and manufacturing worldwide. ◾ Aluminum: 8-10% of global supply from the Middle East is now threatened. As energy expert Daniel Yergin recently noted: “What the Iranians are really doing is waging war on the world economy.” He isn't wrong. The oil and gasoline impacts hit consumer wallets first and hardest, but these cascading shortages in critical commodities will create broader economic pain if the disruption persists. I’d be interested in your thoughts — how do you see these secondary effects playing out in global markets and policy responses? Link to full story in the Comments. #EnergySecurity #GlobalEconomy #EnergyPolicy #LNG #Fertilizers #SupplyChain #StraitofHormuz

What are the "Butterfly Effects" of the growth in GLP-1 usage? I've written a lot about the direct impact of GLP-1 drugs on food and drink. But the "Ozempic Economy" is creating a ripple effect that is reshaping industries you wouldn't expect. Case in point: Today it was reported that investment bank Jefferies has analysed that GLP-1 drugs could save US airlines hundreds of millions of dollars in annual fuel costs as slimmer passengers make planes lighter. This is a classic "second-order effect." And it’s just the start. Here are a few other unexpected ripples of a slimmer world that we can already see playing out: ✂️ The Tailors: "They come in with suitcases of stuff. It’s an all-over reshape." The Financial Times reported that tailors in the City of London are seeing a boom in "Ozempic shops" — executives needing entire wardrobes taken in. It’s a literal resizing of the workforce. 💪 The Gyms: Contrary to the idea that "magic pills" replace exercise, gyms are seeing a surge. 70% of GLP-1 users report exercising more, not less. Chains like Planet Fitness and PureGym are pivoting their floor space from cardio to strength training to help users battle muscle loss. 👗 The Wardrobe Refresh: Stylists are reporting a surge in demand as professionals re-enter the workplace with a new image. It's not just a medical shift; it's a transformation in confidence that impacts personal branding and consumption. ✈️ The Airlines: To put a number on the fuel savings: United Airlines estimates that if passengers were just 10 pounds lighter on average, it would save $80 million a year in fuel. With US obesity rates already dropping (down to 37% from 40% in 2022 according to Gallup), this is a bottom-line reality, not just a theory. The Insight: Disruption is rarely linear. The uptake of GLP-1s isn't just going to change how we eat and drink — it will impact how we dress, how we exercise, how we travel and much more besides. The most interesting opportunities in 2026 won't just be for food and drink brands. They will be for the brands that anticipate the lifestyle of the "newly slim". Is your industry ready for the Butterfly Effect of GLP-1? #humanfirst #GLP1 #Innovation #BehavioralEconomics #FutureTrends

When AI Predicts Its Own Disruption: Deutsche Bank’s Meta-Experiment on the Future of Work Introduction In a striking thought experiment, Deutsche Bank’s research arm asked its own AI tool, dbLumina, to analyze how artificial intelligence will reshape the global economy. The result was a candid forecast of sector-by-sector disruption, outlining a “great rebalancing” of labor rather than outright collapse. Industries Most at Risk • Information technology and software ranked highly vulnerable, as coding relies on logic and patterns AI can replicate. • Over 85% of developers already use AI coding assistants, with productivity gains up to 60%. • Investor anxiety reflected in a sharp selloff of software stocks and shrinking entry-level coding roles. • Finance, especially wealth management, faces accelerated adoption of robo-advisors; AI could guide nearly 80% of retail investors by 2027. • Customer service projected to see up to 75% of interactions automated by 2026. • Media and entertainment flagged as increasingly exposed as generative AI produces, not just analyzes, content. Human “Safe Zones” • Professions requiring deep empathy, including nursing, therapy, and early childhood education, remain relatively insulated. • Skilled trades such as plumbing, carpentry, and construction benefit from physical complexity and unpredictable environments. • High-level strategic leadership and negotiation remain human-dominant due to intuition and contextual judgment. Constraints on AI Expansion • Massive energy demands of data centers may slow large-scale deployment. • Data governance and quality challenges remain significant. • Physical-world limitations reduce automation potential in hands-on industries. The Net Impact AI forecasts displacement of 92 million jobs globally by 2030 but creation of 170 million new roles, implying net workforce growth. However, up to 30% of current U.S. work hours could be automated, requiring an estimated 12 million occupational transitions. The transformation is expected to be disruptive, even if not apocalyptic. Why It Matters By asking AI to assess its own impact, Deutsche Bank highlights a defining tension of this era: productivity gains versus labor displacement. The findings suggest not universal job destruction, but significant reallocation of skills, capital, and opportunity. The scale and speed of workforce transitions will determine whether AI becomes an engine of shared prosperity or prolonged disruption. I share daily insights with tens of thousands of followers across defense, tech, and policy. If this topic resonates, I invite you to connect and continue the conversation. Keith King https://lnkd.in/gHPvUttw

The Impact of Tariffs on American Businesses as of February 2025 As of February 2025, tariffs continue to play a significant role in shaping the landscape for American businesses. With ongoing trade policies, supply chain disruptions, and geopolitical tensions, industries across the board are experiencing both challenges and opportunities.  📉 𝗡𝗲𝗴𝗮𝘁𝗶𝘃𝗲 𝗜𝗺𝗽𝗮𝗰𝘁𝘀 𝗼𝗳 𝗧𝗮𝗿𝗶𝗳𝗳𝘀 𝗼𝗻 𝗨.𝗦. 𝗕𝘂𝘀𝗶𝗻𝗲𝘀𝘀𝗲𝘀  1️⃣ Increased Costs for Import-Dependent Businesses  - Higher prices for raw materials: Industries reliant on imported steel, aluminum, and electronics face increased production costs.  - Manufacturers and retailers struggle with higher input costs, reducing profit margins.  - Example: U.S. automakers are still facing higher costs for car parts due to tariffs on Chinese imports, leading to increased vehicle prices.  2️⃣ Supply Chain Disruptions & Inflationary Pressures  - Tariffs have contributed to ongoing inflation by raising costs on consumer goods, industrial equipment, and agricultural products.  - Companies relying on Asian manufacturing face shipping delays and higher fees due to continued trade disputes.  - Example: Electronics companies face higher costs on semiconductors, impacting U.S. tech firms. 3️⃣ Retaliatory Tariffs from Trade Partners  - Countries like China, Canada, and the EU have responded with their own tariffs on U.S. exports.  - Farmers & food exporters have been hit hard, with soybeans, dairy, and pork facing reduced demand abroad.  - Example: American whiskey and bourbon producers have seen sales decline in Europe due to retaliatory EU tariffs.  📈 𝗣𝗼𝘀𝗶𝘁𝗶𝘃𝗲 𝗘𝗳𝗳𝗲𝗰𝘁𝘀 & 𝗦𝘁𝗿𝗮𝘁𝗲𝗴𝗶𝗰 𝗦𝗵𝗶𝗳𝘁𝘀  1️⃣ Reshoring & Domestic Manufacturing Growth  - Tariffs have encouraged U.S. companies to bring manufacturing back home, boosting domestic production.  - Government incentives (like the CHIPS Act) have supported investment in semiconductor production in the U.S.  - Example: Companies like Intel and TSMC are building new chip plants in Arizona to reduce reliance on Asian imports.  2️⃣ Competitive Advantage for U.S. Producers  - Industries like steel, aluminum, and textiles have benefited from less foreign competition due to import tariffs.  - Some U.S. businesses now enjoy higher demand for locally made products.  - Example: The Biden-Harris administration’s Buy American policies have helped construction materials and defense sectors grow. 📢 𝗙𝗶𝗻𝗮𝗹 𝗧𝗵𝗼𝘂𝗴𝗵𝘁:  Tariffs continue to be a double-edged sword for American businesses. While they protect certain industries, they also raise costs for others, affecting inflation, supply chains, and global trade relations. The coming months will be critical as policymakers reevaluate trade strategies to balance economic protection with global competitiveness. 💬 How do you think tariffs are impacting businesses in your industry? Let’s discuss! 👇

Thinking About Buying a Business? Watch for Tariff Risks. I’ve had several conversations with bankers recently, and many lenders aren’t yet factoring potential tariff impacts into their underwriting. That doesn’t mean you shouldn’t. Just because a bank isn’t adjusting cash flow projections for rising costs doesn’t mean your margins won’t take a hit. Some industries are more vulnerable than others, and if you’re buying a business in one of these sectors, you need to assess the risk before you close the deal: Manufacturing & Industrial Goods – If a business depends on imported steel, aluminum, or components, tariffs could push costs up and shrink margins overnight. Consumer Goods & Electronics – If new tariffs target Chinese imports, expect higher costs for appliances, furniture, and tech products. Agriculture & Food Production – Farmers have already been hit hard by foreign retaliatory tariffs. If a business relies on exports, new trade restrictions could slash revenue. Construction & Real Estate Development – Tariffs on materials like lumber and steel have already made construction projects more expensive. Expect more of the same. Retail & Distribution – Companies that rely on imported inventory (apparel, footwear, home goods) could see major cost increases if new tariffs take effect. Automotive & Aerospace – Tariffs on auto parts or aircraft components could drive up costs for manufacturers, dealerships, and repair businesses. At Pioneer Capital Advisory LLC we’re closely tracking the potential impact of tariffs on our clients’ deals. Just because banks aren’t adjusting their cash flow models yet doesn’t mean buyers can afford to ignore the risk. If you’re considering an acquisition in a tariff-sensitive industry, make sure you’re factoring in potential cost increases and supply chain disruptions. Want a second opinion on how tariffs could impact your deal? Let’s talk.

India's Monsoon Doesn't Just Fill Reservoirs. It Fuels the Economy. When people think about the monsoon, they often think about farming. Businesses should think about something much bigger. A healthy monsoon has a ripple effect across nearly every industry. Agriculture sees stronger output, increasing rural income. Consumer Goods & Retail benefit as rural spending improves, driving demand for FMCG products, automobiles, electronics, and housing materials. Manufacturing experiences higher production as orders increase to meet growing consumer demand. Logistics & Supply Chain networks become busier, moving larger volumes of goods across the country. Labour Markets also feel the impact. Higher industrial activity creates demand for: • Manufacturing professionals • Warehouse and logistics staff • Skilled technicians • Field sales teams • Construction workers • Contract and seasonal workforce For businesses, this isn't just a weather event. It's a workforce planning event. Organizations that anticipate demand can secure talent before hiring becomes competitive. Because every strong economic cycle begins long before the quarterly earnings report. Sometimes the biggest economic indicator isn't on Wall Street— It's in the clouds. #Economy #Monsoon #Manufacturing #Workforce #Hiring #TalentAcquisition #SupplyChain #Logistics #IndustrialGrowth #Recruitment #IndiaEconomy #BusinessStrategy

From my expertise working inside the FDA and alongside CBP, I can tell you this — what just happened isn’t a trade adjustment, it’s a regulatory upheaval. New import taxes are being introduced under the guise of fairness, but they’re about to trigger a domino effect that affects everyone moving products across borders — especially those regulated by federal agencies. Costs won’t just rise. Risk will. Businesses operating in highly controlled industries will now face a triple-threat: 🔸 Unpredictable border interventions 🔸 Shifting agency priorities 🔸 Higher stakes for even minor missteps I’ve seen this kind of pressure play out from the inside. It’s not just about what you bring into the country — it’s about whether your business is built to survive these shifts. If you're responsible for compliance, legal strategy, or product movement — especially in food, supplements, drugs, devices, cosmetics, or even pet goods — now’s the time to act, not react. #TradePolicy #RegulatoryStrategy #FDACompliance #TariffImpact #USImports #GlobalTrade #CBPEnforcement #SupplyChainRisks #ExecutiveLeadership #LegalStrategy #FoodLaw #PharmaCompliance #MedicalDeviceRegulations #PetIndustryRegulations #CrossBorderTrade #ProductSafety #RiskMitigation #ThoughtLeadership #USDA #LinkedInCreators